Merdeka Copper Gold: 1Q26 results in line with JPM but better vs Street; run-rate likely to sustain as Pani ramps up

Research evidence excerpt

Merdeka Copper Gold: 1Q26 results in line with JPM but better vs Street; run-rate likely to sustain as Pani ramps up

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

30 June 2026

Merdeka Copper Gold Overweight

MDKA.JK, MDKA IJ

1Q26 results in line with JPM but better vs Street; run- Price (29 Jun 26):Rp2,630

rate likely to sustain as Pani ramps up ▼Price Target (Jun-27):Rp3,400 Prior (Jun-27):Rp4,030

MDKA reported 1Q26 results that were in line with our estimates but ahead of

consensus. 1Q26 NPATMI stood at US$57mn vs a loss last year, accounting for ASEAN Metals, Indo Auto &

Consumer Research24/34% of JPM/Consensus estimates. Results are admittedly backward looking

and the share price has corrected 19% in the last 3 months, underperforming JCI Benny Kurniawan, CFA AC

by ~3% as the gold price has declined by -11%. We are adjusting our estimates and (62-21) 5291 8024

benny.kurniawan@jpmorgan.com

PT lower, mainly reflecting 1) lower gold price assumption to align with the latest PT J.P. Morgan Sekuritas Indonesia

forward curve (-11% in FY26E), and 2) higher cost assumptions on MDKA's

Anuja Mandvekar

HPAL operations. On our revised numbers, FY26E NPATMI falls 23% to US (91-22) 6157-3369

$226mn, while FY27/28E decline by 25/23%. Consequently, we cut our Jun-27 anuja.mandvekar@jpmorgan.com

PT by 15.6% to IDR3,400 (from IDR4,030 previously). Despite the cut, we J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

maintain our positive stance as we expect MDKA’s swing to profitability to be

sustained this year, supported by (1) higher commodity prices vs last year across

Key Changes (FYE Dec)its portfolio, 2) better spreads on RKEF operations and 3) first material gold output

from the Pani mine, ramping to ~100koz vs nil a year ago. While we acknowledge Prev Cur Δ