China International Capital Corporation (3908): ROE accretive merger + tech cycle upside drive re-rating potential; raise PT, reiterate sector top pick

Research evidence excerpt

China International Capital Corporation (3908): ROE accretive merger + tech cycle upside drive re-rating potential; raise PT, reiterate sector top pick

Asia Pacific Equity Research

30 June 2026

China International Capital

Overweight

Corporation (3908) 3908.HK, 3908 HK

Price (29 Jun 26): HK$20.54

ROE accretive merger + tech cycle upside drive re-

▲ Price Target (Jun-27): HK$28.50

rating potential; raise PT, reiterate sector top pick Prior (Dec-26): HK$24.50

Our analysis suggests CICC’s ongoing merger is ROE-accretive, with the pace China

of ROE recovery to be faster than investors currently expect. We forecast ROE Banks & Financial Services

to rise from 9.4% in 2025 to 11.3% in 2027, driven by the strong market AC Peter Zhang

conditions and balance sheet re-leverage post the merger. We also view CICC (852) 2800-8557

as a differentiated beneficiary of China’s technology-sector growth cycle and peter.zhang@jpmorgan.com

expect it to outperform peers in capturing regulatory tailwinds for brokers’ J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

institutional businesses. Our 2027 ROE forecast of 11.3% is meaningfully Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

above Bloomberg consensus of 10.2%, and we expect upward consensus Katherine Lei

revisions to catalyze a re-rating. Accordingly, we raise our price target to (852) 2800-8552

HK$28.50 and reiterate CICC-H as our sector top pick. katherine.lei@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

• Uniquely positioned to benefit from the technology-sector growth cycle: Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

Lincoln Yu CICC has a best-in-class investment banking franchise and has been actively

(852) 2800 8523

involved in technology enterprises’ financing. It holds the largest market lincoln.yu@jpmorgan.com