J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning Intelligence: Munis move closer to fair value ahead of strong 1H July technicals. Fund flow drivers. SMA AUM update. Midterms preview.

Research evidence excerpt

J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning Intelligence: Munis move closer to fair value ahead of strong 1H July technicals. Fund flow drivers. SMA AUM update. Midterms preview.

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

29 June 2026

J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning

Intelligence

Munis move closer to fair value ahead of strong 1H July

technicals. Fund flow drivers. SMA AUM update.

Midterms preview.

Securitized Products & Public – The risks for Treasury yields seem skewed higher over the medium term,

Finance Municipals Strategy

as 10-year UST rates appear 27bps rich to our model-implied fair value. That

said, our rates team is mindful that near-term rebalancing dynamics could leave Peter DeGroot AC

further room for yields to drop over the coming week, so they remain patient (1-212) 834-7293

peter.degroot@jpmorgan.com

in entering outright duration shorts.

Ye Tian

– This week, we expect municipals to perform well given limited supply (1-212) 834-3051

volume ($4bn tax-exempt) and the arrival of July reinvestment capital (we ye.tian@jpmorgan.com

estimate $37bn through July 14th). While municipal market technicals and fund Roisin A Gargan

flows momentum should drive a positive tone, geopolitical risk factors persist (1-212) 834-7010

roisin.gargan@jpmchase.com

and the market will digest a number of tier 1 economic prints, including J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Thursday’s June employment report.

–In the event that an exuberant bid does develop, recent strong performance in

risky sectors, supportive market technicals over the 1st of July, and our rate/

supply forecast suggest selling borderline/richer credits and structures.

Tax-Exempt Market Wrap

– Last week, the municipal market resisted the UST market rally, with price

movement limited by lesser reinvestment capital and relative rich valuations,