Latin America Data Watch: The burden of proof shifts to the data

Research evidence excerpt

Latin America Data Watch: The burden of proof shifts to the data

ed with Fujimori holds a working plu-further improvement supported by energy, agriculture, and

rality, reducing the classic “presidential-vacancy” tail risk thatmining exports, alongside softer imports; we have revised

has driven Peru’s political risk premium, though raising risksour trade surplus forecast to US$25bn (FOB–FOB) and now

of coalition fragmentation and street conflict. Fujimori’ssee a balanced current account, versus our prior call for a 1%

“Perú con Orden” agenda pairs a security-first push with aof GDP surplus.

market-orthodox economic reset (deregulation, fiscal anchor,

Colombia: De la Espriella confirmed as investment-led growth) wrapped in redistributive measures—

elected president most notably “Canon para el Pueblo,” which would channel

Diego W. Pereira & Juan Goldin 40% of mining-canon revenues directly to households in

extraction zones to buy social license in the hostile southern

Abelardo de la Espriella received from the National Electoral mining corridor. With terms of trade at multi-decade highs

Council last Thursday the credential that accredits him as the and a ~$64bn mining project pipeline concentrated in the

next president of Colombia, along with José Manuel Restrepo South, the investment thesis hinges less on commodity prices

as his running mate. De la Espriella takes office August and more on whether permitting reforms plus conflict-man-

7. Meanwhile, leftist candidate Cepeda conceded defeat and agement (cash transfers and accelerated southern infrastruc-

stated that he would lead a “democratic, vigilant, and con- ture/services) can unlock capacity without reigniting anti-

structive opposition.” In accordance with electoral law, he mining unrest.