Full Truck Alliance: Upgrade to OW: Trough multiple and lower earnings risk set up potential mean reversion, demand poised to inflect in 2H

Research evidence excerpt

Full Truck Alliance: Upgrade to OW: Trough multiple and lower earnings risk set up potential mean reversion, demand poised to inflect in 2H

onsensus, expecting an earnings cycle Jenny Qiu, CFA

poised to inflect upwards to be a potential share price driver. (852) 2800 8503

• Regulatory overhang fading into business-as-usual, while VAT/ jenny.qiu@jpmorgan.com

invoicing and credit are being rebuilt to remove tail risks. Management J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

characterized ecosystem governance as business-as-usual, with limited

governance-related volume drag in 2Q and the key operating swings shifting Neil Zhang

towards oil/weather rather than periodic clean-up campaigns. The VAT/ (852) 2800-8598

invoicing business (Manyunbao) is structurally de-risking through the neil.zhang@jpmorgan.com

aggregation model: YMM increasingly acts as a traffic/service layer J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited

charging c1-2% commission rate, while invoicing and tax-related exposure Beatrice Lam

sit with third-party partners, and the commercial role is positioned as (852) 2800-8738

shipper retention and compliance support rather than a standalone profit beatrice.lam@jpmorgan.com

center. Credit solution business is also moving towards third-party funding J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

ahead of potential tighter APR constraints. Net-net, these changes reduce the

probability of downside surprises, in our view.

Style Exposure

• Near-term volatility is shifting from a demand timing disruption

toward normalization with oil price easing notably, while the medium-

term growth algorithm remains penetration-led rather than freight-

cycle beta. Management noted the macro freight backdrop as still sluggish,