Heidelberg Materials: Expect 3% LFL EBITDA growth for Q2-2026

Research evidence excerpt

Heidelberg Materials: Expect 3% LFL EBITDA growth for Q2-2026

Elodie Rall AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-5911 29 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

elodie.rall@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Heidelberg Materials (Overweight; Price Target: €250.00)

Investment Thesis

We are OW Heidelberg (Top Pick), which remains on our Analyst Focus List (AFL).

Heidelberg has been the strongest performer within our coverage in 2025 and looking into

2026, we see scope for this to continue as we continue to prefer Heavyside over Lightside.

In our view, Heidelberg is a key stock to play the theme of improving industry fundamentals

and pricing power for the European Cement Industry and looking ahead to 2026, we see the

sector benefiting from positive price increases given regulatory catalysts (i.e, CBAM

enactment and EU ETS Benchmark revision). The company also has good exposure to

Germany and thus should benefit from funding from Germany’s infrastructure bill coming

through. Elsewhere, we note valuation support versus Holcim despite Heidelberg

continuing to have US exposure, which could present a source of upside should the

uncertainty in that market fade and activity accelerate. The company is also undergoing a

transformation initiative, which aims to culminate in a yearly result contribution of €500m

by the end of 2026, and as of Q3, the company had delivered half of this already.

Valuation

We derive our PT from an EV/EBITDA-based valuation methodology with EV calculation.

Our PT is derived by applying our revised target EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.8x to our

adjusted 2027 EBITDA estimates to get to our PT. This multiple is a premium to its history,

which we think is warranted given improved fundamentals and pricing power. Definition