CEEMEA Economics & Strategy Daily: US non-farm payroll week, Romania budget gap widens

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CEEMEA Economics & Strategy Daily: US non-farm payroll week, Romania budget gap widens

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29 Jun 2026 06:02:25 ET │ 15 pages

CEEMEA Economics & Strategy Daily

US non-farm payroll week, Romania budget gap widens

CITI'S TAKE

Luis E Costa, CFA AC

Markets opened the week navigating a re-escalated and then re-paused +44-20-7986-9757

Strait of Hormuz crisis, a hawkish Fed pivot under Chair Warsh and quarter- luis.costa@citi.com

end positioning.

Alexander Rozhetskin AC

Global Macro – Markets opened the week navigating a re-escalated and then re- +44-20-7508-4787

paused Strait of Hormuz crisis - the ceasefire broke down over the weekend due to alexander.rozhetskin@citi.com

fresh US-Iran strikes, before a fresh halt was agreed overnight, with Doha talks now AC Bhumika Guptaexpected Tuesday. Markets are also navigating a hawkish Fed pivot under Chair

Warsh that has structurally repriced EM rate cut expectations as well as quarter-end +44-20-7986-5933

positioning that is driving outsized volatility. Emerging-market stocks traded mostly bhumika1.gupta@citi.com

higher as tensions eased after the US and Iran backed away from fresh clashes. AC Nikola ApostolovWhilst oil prices initially rose on Monday, with Brent crude climbing as much as 1.9

per cent to $73.39 a barrel before paring gains to trade at around $72 in London. +44-20-7986-6499

Looking ahead, investors are awaiting the US non-farm payroll print due later this nikola.apostolov@citi.com

week to assess the likely timing of policy tightening. After three months of AC Katie Kironde

surprisingly strong job growth, our US economics team expect volatility to return to

+44-20-7986-3315monthly jobs data with a softer increase in nonfarm payrolls in June.

katie.kironde@citi.com