Citi‘s Most Read - Commodities & ClimateTech

Research evidence excerpt

Citi‘s Most Read - Commodities & ClimateTech

(Buy) vs. U/W APD (Neutral) as we expect LIN to benefit from favorable volumes in

North America and potential catalysts from electronics projects, while APD faces

challenging decisions on Darrow and risk of helium normalization into 2027.

Patrick Cunningham

The Daily Build - First Thoughts on Potential CRH-Arcosa Combination

In our daily, we highlight items of interest for Homebuilders, Building Products &

Construction Materials investors:

Anthony Pettinari

Pettinari on Paper & Packaging - Containerboard Jumps +$50/ton; Mind the

(Valuation) Gap

In our weekly we highlight items of interest for Paper & Packaging investors:

IP vs. PKG NTM EBITDA Multiple Last 10 Years US Benchmark Containerboard Prices

North America Commodity Chemicals - Middle East Peace Narrative Pressures

Commodities Outlook

We caught up with our Commodity & Intermediate Chemical companies ahead of

2Q reporting. Commodity spot prices/spreads declined substantially from peak in

the weeks leading up to the peace agreement, as fears of significant feedstock and

base-chemical supply disruption generally abated. 2Q beats, even against a higher

bar, are likely to be outweighed by the degree of commodity price/spread

normalization across chains, underlying volumes in 2H26, and ability to convert

FCF in this period of higher earnings. We adjust our estimates broadly downward

to reflect current crude oil and chemical supply environment and weaker outlook

for spreads. We generally see intermediate companies (EMN, CE) as better

positioned to capture volume and price/cost across more diverse specialty

business in 2H26. Top pick across the group is EMN (TP of $85 from $88). Other

TP changes: CE ($68 from $80); DOW ($35 from $41); LYB ($67 from $80); WLK

($85 from $95).