US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

JUNE 29, 2026

IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF

Market Intelligence will not be publishing July 2 – July 6.

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – we maintain our Tactical Bullish call and update the Monetization Menu

• POSITIONING INTELLIGENCE – Weekly Wrap | Mixed Tech Flows as AxJ, Semis, and Tech HW

Positioning Stay Elevated

• MACRO VIEW ON TECH SECTOR – we take a look at some facets of the Tech trade after the recent

pullback.

• INFLATION – we take a look at the inflation landscape including impacts from surging memory prices.

Inflation remains a risk, but reopening SoH reduces Fed hike risk. Beware the return of tariffs.

• SEASONALITY – we include color on summer seasonality and on midterm election years. Since

1990, midterm elections have delivered have averaged +0.8% vs. +9.7% average annual return over

the last 30 years, with midterm years’ Q2 and Q3 delivering material underperformance.

• JPM RESEARCH MID-YEAR OUTLOOK – Samantha Azzarello summarizes each outlook into 2-3

bullet points with relevant charts; her note is here. Copies of each outlook are linked in her note.

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES

• SPX +0.7%, NDX +1.0%, RTY +0.3%. WTI +178bps at $70.46, NatGas -107bps to $3.24, UK NatGas

+373bps to £1.0145, Gold -110bps to $4,044, Silver -190bps to $58.02, 10Y @ 4.384%, and VIX @

18.41.

• US: Futs are higher led by Tech as Mag7 leads the group higher but with a bid to both Software and

Semis, which may be more driven by period-end reshuffling than a shift in sentiment. Cyclicals ex-

Materials are leading Defensives ex-HC with the AI theme bid up across sectors. Bond yields are +1-

2bp higher with the Dollar down a touch. Cmdtys are lower but the Energy complex is bid following