Citi‘s Most Read – Economics

Research evidence excerpt

Citi‘s Most Read – Economics

implication is that supply-chain pressures are likely to linger. Consistent with this

view, our Citi Global Supply Chain Pressure Index has already tightened

significantly and, as such, we see some looming challenges for global growth and

inflation. Equity View: The sectors most at risk, including Aluminum,

Petrochemicals, and Fertilizers, look poised to endure a sustained period of

pressures. In contrast, Helium & Chip Manufacturing and North American

Transport strike us as better positioned.

Nathan Sheets | Cole Langlois | Laura (Chia Yi) Chen | Peter Lee | Elizabeth Sun, CFA

Brent Oil Price Citi Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

$/bbl Pre-Pandemic Average = 0

130 4

Onset of Iran Conflict

120 3

100 May

-1 70

60 -2

Feb-2026 Mar-2026 Apr-2026 May-2026 Jun-2026 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

US Economics - Inflation Weekly – What inflation will the Fed care about?

We use this inflation weekly to take stock of the various drivers of inflation data

through the first half of the year. The debate around the drivers of inflation and the

appropriate way to measure inflation will become increasingly in focus with new

Fed task forces. Tightening policy to counteract inflationary pressures that have

resulted from strong investment demand would likely have a trade-off of weighing

further on labor and housing markets, which are already not a source of

inflationary pressure. We expect data in the next three months to further highlight

the divergence among inflation signals, with core CPI falling below 2.5% YoY as

soon as August while core PCE is still stuck above 3%.

Veronica Clark | Andrew Hollenhorst

Core PCE could look even more like an outlier over the next three months

Core PCE 6

Core CPI

5 Dallas Trimmed Mean PCE

NY Fed Multivariate PCE

avg 4