Ventia Services Group: Defending the 2H skew

Research evidence excerpt

Ventia Services Group: Defending the 2H skew

Don Carducci AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(61-2) 9003-8379 29 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

donald.n.carducci@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

Ventia is a leading essential infrastructure services provider in

Australia and New Zealand with extensive capabilities across

the full asset lifecycle including operations and maintenance,

facilities management, minor capital works, environmental

services, and other solutions.

The company is diversified across services, clients and

geography and has a long-dated contract profile with minimal

fixed-price exposure with a substantial number of long-term

customers, limiting the potential for material downside earnings

YTD 1m 3m 12m risk.

Abs 8.1% 3.5% 17.3% 25.3%

Rel 6.6% 2.9% 14.3% 23.0% We believe the company’s capital-light, diversified and highly

cash generative business model will assist the business in

Company Data

capitalising on solid industry growth over the coming years. We

Shares O/S (mn) 832

have a Neutral rating on the shares.52-week range (A$) 6.82-4.61

Market cap ($ mn) 3,689.04 Valuation

Exchange rate 1.45

Free float (%) 83.1% Our Dec-2026 price target of $5.60 per share is based on our

3M ADV (mn) 3.51 DCF valuation (WACC: 10.9%; forecast period: 10 years;

3M ADV ($ mn) 13.9

terminal value: assumes the company does not generate ROICVolatility (90 Day) 27

Index ASX 100 above WACC in perpetuity). Our price target is based on the

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 7|4|0 future value of our valuation, less any dividends to be paid

Key Metrics (FYE Dec) between now and the target date.

A$ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E

Financial Estimates Performance Drivers

Revenue 6,141 6,392 6,838 7,153

Adj. EBITDA 531 582 622 632

Adj.