EM FX Daily Report - 29th June 2026. Mon Jun 29 2026

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX Daily Report - 29th June 2026. Mon Jun 29 2026

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 29 June 2026

EM FX

RUB USDRUB much higher as we trade up on a 78 handle, as domestic problems seem to be

growing. Focus will be this week on Ministry of finance announcements around FX

interventions on Friday. Meanwhile think we should find resistance towards 80 in spot.

ZAR Risk is trading better this morning, and I’m encouraged to see USDZAR back below 16.40 after

holding below the 200DMA last week. No change in view: I still think EM FX can do ok in this

environment, and I continue to hold ZAR longs while staying short G10. There isn’t much on

the data calendar today, so I expect a quiet session, but that should pick up tomorrow with

month-end.

TRY USDTRY traded close to the state bank offers at the end of last week amid corporate RHS flows

on Friday, with the level moving 175 pips higher to 46.6425 this morning, in line with the

recent pace of depreciation. Local flows still show no meaningful signs of retail dollarisation,

which is encouraging for the carry trade, with offshore positioning sitting around $36b. While

the current FX framework becomes harder to sustain over the long term without continued

reserve rebuilding and supportive local behaviour, we still think that seasonally better current-

account dynamics should remain supportive for TRY in the near term. We therefore remain long

TRY. As long as retail dollarisation stays contained, which has been the case so far, the FX

policy framework should remain intact and controlled nominal depreciation is the base case at

the moment. CPI Friday is the main event domestically, where a higher print, especially against