Murata Mfg (6981)

Research evidence excerpt

Murata Mfg (6981)

Investment opinion for Murata Mfg

Earnings forecasts

• We forecast sales of ¥1,993.6 billion in FY2026 (up 9% YoY; company plan: ¥1,960.0 billion; BBG consensus: ¥2.3 trillion), ¥2,351.6 billion in FY2027 (up 18%

YoY; BBG consensus: ¥2,292.1 billion), ¥2,773.7 billion in FY2028 (up 18% YoY; BBG consensus: ¥2,727.5 billion), and ¥3,188.3 billion in FY2029 (up 15%

YoY), and ¥3,666.2 billion in FY2030 (up 15% YoY).

• We forecast operating profit of ¥411.7 billion in FY2026 (up 46% YoY, 20.7% OPM, company plan: ¥380.0 billion, BBG consensus: ¥411.9 billion), ¥672.0

billion in FY2027 (up 63% YoY, 28.6% OPM, BBG consensus: ¥562.8 billion), ¥1,010.4 billion in FY2028 (up 50% YoY, 36.4% OPM, BBG consensus: ¥794.1

billion), ¥1,267.0 billion in FY2029 (up 25% YoY, 39.7% OPM), and ¥1,567.2 billion in FY2030 (up 24% YoY, 42.8% OPM).

Main drivers of earnings growth are increases in MLCCs for AI servers and resulting prolonged tightness in MLCC supply and demand conditions

• We expect tight supply-demand conditions to continue through FY2030. We expect a lull in the ¥80-90 billion in annual downward pressure on profits from

price declines to contribute to higher earnings during the tight supply-demand phase. We have not factored in the impact from price increases yet. In official

comments, Murata Mfg has ruled out the possibility of short-term price increases, yet we note a gradual shift in tone at the operational level in our channel

checks and see an increasing likelihood of price increases in the future. We think any price hikes will be implemented on a case-by-case basis rather than

across the board. We intend to closely monitor future trends.

• Meanwhile, we think the stock market is focusing too much on the possibility of price increases.