Europe Edge

Research evidence excerpt

Europe Edge

Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc (44 20) 7742-2466 Fatih Akcelik (44 20) 3493 7285 Europe Economic Research J P M O R G A Nnicolaie.alexandru@jpmorgan.com fatih.akcelik@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 29 June 2026

Anatoliy A Shal (971) 4561-2005 Khamza Sharifzoda (44 20) 3493-3571

anatoliy.a.shal@jpmorgan.com khamza.sharifzoda@jpmorgan.com

Europe Edge The upside for Tbilisi is twofold. More transit traffic means

higher port revenues and greater investment; but beyond the

This is an extract from the EM Edge Data Watch. For the full economics, it gives Georgia a way to demonstrate that it

publication and thematic essay please use this link remains strategically relevant even as its relations with Wash-

ington and Brussels remain in the cold. On a separate track,

• Georgia: increased engagement with Central Asia the Georgian government is also working to expand direct air

• Azerbaijan: CBRA stays on hold at 6.5% in June links with Central Asian countries in hopes of driving tourist

inflows, which have grown in recent years but still trail arriv-

• Serbia: NBS is on hold at 5.75% als from the EU (Figure 1). That gap matters: tourism is a sig-

• Serbia: momentum in core inflation is falling nificant source of foreign exchange for Georgia, yet travel

• Kazakhstan: Decomposing inflation dynamics revenue as a share of GDP has been on a declining trend (Fig-

ure 2). For now, this is not a source of concern, thanks to pru-

Georgia’s New Regional Diplomacy dent fiscal policy, a contained merchandise trade deficit, and

significant FDI inflows. However, this could become a biggerKhamza Sharifzoda

issue if the EU suspends the Schengen visa-free regime with

Georgia in 2028, harming remittances inflows.Last week we highlighted increased American engagement