Stars Aligning; Reiterate OW / Raise PT to $67

Research evidence excerpt

Stars Aligning; Reiterate OW / Raise PT to $67

and suggests ** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

potentially more to come from the government of Japan. A government decision e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

around J-LEO – a closely watched competition to develop a Japanese D2D satellite Quarterly EPS (C$)

2026e 2026e 2027e 2027e

network (run by Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) – is Quarter 2025 Prior Current Prior Current

anticipated in a matter of days (end of June). While MDA has not announced a Q1 0.29 - 0.38a - -

Q2 0.38 - 0.35 - -

Japanese partner (which it would most likely need to satisfy Japan’s domestic Q3 0.35 - 0.34 - -

requirements) we do not see MDA shares underwriting a J-LEO win at current Q4 0.45 - 0.35 - -

levels (suggesting upside if it materializes). MDA continues to trade at a ~2-turn e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

discount to US peers (on 2027 EV/sales), but we think successive sovereign

contract wins – which we estimate should drive a combined $1bn backlog boost

this year – along with a new toehold in the US defense market via the planned

acquisition of Blue Canyon should narrow the valuation gap. We reiterate our OW

and raise our PT to $67 from $58.

The MELCO win is impressive in its own right…

MDA announced on 6/25 that it was selected by MELCO to provide the digital

payload and other components (e.g., antennas) for the Japanese Ministry of

Defense’s next-gen military communication satellite in GEO (replacing DSN-2). This Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with

companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,

award reflects the first major defense win outside of Canada for MDA.