China Catches Long March; Don‘t Discount China

Research evidence excerpt

China Catches Long March; Don‘t Discount China

y. It is designed primarily § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

for low-Earth-orbit missions and can carry up to roughly 16 metric tons in its

Quarterly EPS ($)

reusable configuration, while also testing technologies relevant to China’s 2026e 2026e 2027e 2027e

Quarter 2025 Prior Current Prior Current

future crewed and lunar launch systems.

Q1 (0.18) - (0.84)a - 0.54

• What's Next? Attention now shifts to LandSpace’s second Zhuque-3 partially Q2 (0.34) - (0.35) - 0.55

reusable rocket flight, which is expected to soon make another orbital launch Q3 (0.36) - 0.27 - 0.54

Q4 (0.80) - 0.45 - 0.56

and first-stage landing attempt after completing a full static-fire test on June

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

29; LandSpace has not yet publicly confirmed an exact launch date. China’s

state-owned program will also inspect and potentially refly the recovered

Long March 10B booster, an important test of whether the recovery can

translate into practical, repeatable reuse. We could envision multiple

operational Chinese reusable rockets by year-end.

Why it matters? SpaceX's biggest competitive threat in our view is China, in our

view, and rocket reuse provides an important unlock for larger constellation

ambitions. China has a deep space ecosystem across state-backed programs, the

Long March rocket family, commercial launch companies such as LandSpace,

Galactic Energy, and Space Pioneer, and planned multi-thousand satellite LEO

megaconstellations. China also ranks as the clear number two global launch market

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with

by cadence (90 orbital launches in 2025 vs.