Matsuzawa Morning Report

Research evidence excerpt

Matsuzawa Morning Report

Global Markets Research

26 June 2026Matsuzawa Morning Report

Macro Strategy - Japan

Research Analysts

Bright and dark sides of AI investment Strategy

Naka Matsuzawa - NSC

Will AI suppress inflation or accelerate it? naka.matsuzawa@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 3864

-Whilesemiconductorstocksremainfirm,hyperscalerstocksaresoft,revealingboththe

positiveandnegativesidesofAIinvestmentdemand.

-Surgingcopperandsemiconductorpricesbenefitrelatedcompaniesandstocks,but

alsoraiseconcernsabouthigherinvestmentcostsandmorehawkishstancestakenby

centralbanks.

-UntilthereismoreevidencethatAIadoptionisimprovingproductivityandrestraining

inflation,marketsandcentralbanksneedtomonitorboththepositiveandnegative

effects.

Today's Japanese market

In Japanese markets on Friday, this author expects equities and bonds to fall back (in

overnight futures trading, bonds and equities were down 19 sen andJPY1,320,

respectively, over OSE). In overseas markets yesterday, anxiety over the situation in the

Middle East flared up again, oil prices rose, and momentum was risk-off. In the US stock

market, consumer spending-related names were weak due to higher oil prices, and tech

names were also mixed. Media reports (NewYorkTimes) suggested that a major AI

company is considering delaying its IPO. Bitcoin continued to fall, reaching a new low for

the year (left-hand graph, Figure 1). In the US bond market, short and intermediate bonds

were bought back in response to risk-off flows, but long and super-long bonds remained

weak. In the FX market, USD weakened throughout the day, decoupled from oil and US

yields. The USD buying that followed the Fed's hawkish shift appears to have run its

course. JPY was also weak, stuck in the 161.5-162.0 range against USD, and fell against