Matsuzawa’s View: Macro Strategy Weekly

Research evidence excerpt

Matsuzawa’s View: Macro Strategy Weekly

Global Markets Research

Matsuzawa’s View: Macro Strategy Weekly 26 June 2026

Macro Strategy - Japan

Japanese government is behind the curve ResearchStrategy Analysts

Naka Matsuzawa - NSC

End of decline in crude oil prices likely to increase concern about naka.matsuzawa@nomura.com

withdrawal of excess liquidity +81 3 6703 3864

• This author expects equities and bonds to be soft, USD solid, and JPY weak in the

week of 29 June.

• The pause in oil's decline is likely to increase concerns about excess liquidity

withdrawal more than expectations for an economic comeback.

• If the US unemployment rate falls and Warsh sees the AI boom as a factor that will

accelerate inflation, then rate hike expectations could rise.

• Unable to secure approval from the Takaichi administration for the need to stem JPY

weakness, authorities are likely reluctant to intervene until US rates stabilize.

Week to watch out for withdrawal of excess liquidity

In the week of 29 June, the main theme is likely to be the end of the decline in oil prices

and the withdrawal of excess liquidity. Sub-themes will likely be the divergence between

US job gains and the unemployment rate; the solid performance of semiconductor stocks

and softness of hyperscalers; strong copper and weak bitcoin; the likelihood of a Fed rate

hike this year; the relationship between AI and inflation; USD/JPY hitting new highs and

the Japanese government correcting its behind-the-curve stance; and the fiscal burden of

Japan's growth strategy. The factors to watch in the US are Fedspeak (Fed Chair Kevin

Warsh) and the release of the ISM manufacturing and the jobs report. In Japan, a 10yr

auction will be held and the Tankan will be released. Overall, this author expects equities