US Economic Weekly

Research evidence excerpt

US Economic Weekly

Global Markets Research

26 June 2026US Economic Weekly

Economics - North America

Research Analysts

Payrolls take a breather North America Economics

Aichi Amemiya - NSI

• We expect jobgainsdeceleratedto70kinJune, primarily due to the waning impact of aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

some temporary factors that boosted May’s payrolls. Overall, we still believe that the +1 212 667 9347

labor market remains resilient, which is likely to keep the Fed focused on inflation. Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

• We expect Chair Warsh will repeat his June FOMC comments at the ECB's Sintra +1 212 667 9637

forum and is unlikely to break any new ground, but one key aspect to watch is how he

Ruchir Sharma - NSI describes recent developments in the Middle East and energy prices.

ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

• Data released this week suggests growth remains resilient. Real personal spending +1 212 667 9186

growth accelerated in May, despite Iran war-related uncertainty, while the durable Jacklyn Goloborodsky - NSI

goods report points to broad based business investment. jacklyn.goloborodsky@nomura.com

+1 212 298 4739

Job gains likely slowed in June Global Economics

WeexpectheadlineNFPgrowthslowedto70kinJune, slightly below the year-to-date David Seif - NSI

average. Some reversal in the noisy factors that boosted the May print points to a david.seif@nomura.com

deceleration in June, but overall we believe that the labor market remains resilient. +1 212 667 9180

Lead indicators have remained modestly positive, with few signs of stress in the labor

market. Weekly ADP data have slowed from its peak, but continue to point to solid

employment growth in the private sector and continuing claims rose through the June NFP

survey reference week (Fig.1).