Japan SPE: May trade statistics

Research evidence excerpt

Japan SPE: May trade statistics

Global Markets Research

Japan SPE: May trade statistics 26 June 2026

EQUITY: JAPAN SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTION EQUIPMENT

Research Analysts

SPE exports have entered a clear growth phase Japan semiconductor production

equipment

We do not expect MATCH Act-related rush demand for Japan SPE, still Atsushi Yoshioka - NSC

expect higher H2 shipments to China atsushi.yoshioka@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 1176

May SPE exports up 21% y-y, in clear demand growth phase

Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) published confirmed trade statistics for May on 26

June (Figure 1). The value of Japan's semiconductor production equipment (SPE) exports

tends to strongly correlate with the value of Japan-made manufacturing equipment sales

(Figure 2). Export value rose 21% y-y to ¥218.2bn in May, the third straight month of y-y

growth, making it clear that SPE demand has entered a period of growth.

Exports to China continue to fall, but we still expect demand to rise in H2

May SPE exports were down 23% y-y to China (down 17% on a three-month moving

average basis), up 52% to Taiwan (up 26%), and up 61% to South Korea (up 39%).

Exports to North America were up 85% (up 64%), which we attribute to shipments to

TSMC. Import statistics for May for regions other than Japan have also been published,

and show SPE imports of China down 12% (down 7%), those of Taiwan up 34% (up

38%), and those of South Korea up 99% (up 38%). Exports to China have fallen for 19

straight months, but inquiries have been strong, as evidenced by Screen Holdings' [7735]

recent comment that the Chinese wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) market might be

stronger than envisioned as of May, and we think this is largely due to demand being

skewed towards H2, as has been our view.