JPY Weekly: Tug of war just below the key level

Research evidence excerpt

JPY Weekly: Tug of war just below the key level

Global Markets Research

26 June 2026JPY Weekly

Foreign Exchange - Global

Research Analysts

Tug of war just below the key level Global FX Strategy

Yujiro Goto - NSC

Key events next week: BOJ’s Tankan, GPIF’s annual investment result, yujiro.goto@nomura.com

FX intervention data for May +81 3 6703 1120

Yusuke Miyairi, CFA - NIplc

• USD/JPY tested its multi-year high this week, but the lack of an acceleration in US yusuke.miyairi@nomura.com

inflation and the market’s increased caution around potential MOF intervention have +44 (0) 20 7102 4145

so far prevented the pair from breaching the key 161.95 level.

Tomoki Hideshima - NSC • Meanwhile, the BOJ’s policy stance has not yet shifted in a direction that would tomoki.hideshima@nomura.com

strengthen JPY, and there is a risk that the government's stance on BOJ rate hikes is +81 3 6703 1427

hardening.

Yuki Kodera - NSC • However, we think it might be premature to conclude that government pressure will yuki.kodera@nomura.com

constrain BOJ hikes, as the Bank gained policy flexibility at the June meeting. That +81 3 6703 1281

said, we think the government’s fiscal policy stance should be closely monitored.

• JPY week ahead: The BOJ’s Tankan survey for Q2 is due on Wednesday. We expect

market attention will focus on firms’ inflation expectations and funding demands to

gauge the financial accommodation. On Friday, GPIF’s investment performance will

be released, which will offer further clarity on its latest FX hedge ratio.

USD/JPY testing multi-year highs, but lack of acceleration in US PCE inflation may

limit scope for further Fed hawkishness

USD/JPY is testing its multi-year intraday high of 161.95, recorded in July 2024. However,