JPM | Copper S232 decision, Iron Ore & Tungsten inbounds, Long Commodities in Q3, China Renewables targets

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | Copper S232 decision, Iron Ore & Tungsten inbounds, Long Commodities in Q3, China Renewables targets

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

29 June 2026

Few interesting headlines that I got inbounds on Friday – 1) Iron Ore’s +1.2% movehigher on Friday afternoon – this is likely

due to headlines that Fortescue’s cargoes due in china next month are being held up due to stalling taks with the CMRG, pushing

buyers to source alternatives and moving prices higher.

The second batch was on tungsten– Digitimes reported that Japanese chip suppliers Kanto Denka and Central Glass, which

provide about 24% of global tungsten hexafluoride output, report depleted stocks and cannot maintain supply through late 2026

due to China’s controls on tungsten exports. AI chip production requires exponentially more etching gases per wafer – which

amplifies the supply shortage from China export controls.

There is a LOT of interest in Tungsten from HKCN investors - prices have risen +600% globally in the last year & 300%

domestically in China as these export controls take place & the stocks screen inexpensively relative to NAV (Although subject to

a pullback if export controls are taken off) – Xiamen Tungsten has highest quality assets in China, EQ Resources in Australia the

other producer that has benefited from its assets domestically & in Spain.

Moving to ideas, my colleague Brendan makes a great case to go long commodities into Q3as WTI hits $70/bbl and the BCOM

Index has its worst month in 4 years. The last time you had a 15% drawdown in the BCOM (in 2022), the index went on the

return 12% over the next 2 month. Positioning is washed out – As you can tell with the collapse in Open interest, ETF outflows &

Brent net short positioning.