Brazilian Shopping Malls: Deep Dive on Organic Growth: Looking at Brownfields vs Greenfields Returns and Comparing GLA Trends

Research evidence excerpt

Brazilian Shopping Malls: Deep Dive on Organic Growth: Looking at Brownfields vs Greenfields Returns and Comparing GLA Trends

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

28 June 2026

Brazilian Shopping Malls

Deep Dive on Organic Growth: Looking at Brownfields

vs Greenfields Returns and Comparing GLA Trends

In this report, we assess the returns of Shopping Malls organic growth initiatives— Latin American Cement &

greenfields and expansions—and how portfolio growth has evolved throughout the Construction / Real Estate

last 15+ years. We measure returns by calculating the yield on the 3rd year rent (or delta Marcelo Motta AC

in rent for expansions) vs the project’s capex. Our main conclusions were: (i) 3rd year (55-11) 4950-6712

yields were mostly below the current cost of capital, as companies obtained on marcelo.g.motta@jpmorgan.com

average a 3rd year return based on rents of 10.8%, having invested ~R$6.4bn in Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

expansions + greenfields over the past 15 years; (ii) companies should continue to Jonathan S. Koutras

favor investments in expansions over greenfields, a trend already in place as (55-11) 4950-3549

jonathan.s.koutras@jpmchase.com

greenfield returns were on average ~6.0pp lower than expansions; (iii) Iguatemi was Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

the company doing the best investments based on this metric, providing investors Adrian E Huerta

with an average 3rd year rent to capex yield at 12.0% compared to Multiplan at 10.5% (52-81) 8152-8720

and ALLOS at 9.9%. We view Brazilian Malls trading at 9.8x P/FFO 12M Fwd, a adrian.huerta@jpmorgan.com

spread of ~230bps vs its 5Y average of ~330bps. J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

Morgan Grupo Financiero

• On average, the projects delivered a 3rd year return of ~11%.