CEEMEA Petrochemicals Monitor: Q2 Preview: Ability to sell to separate the haves and have-nots. But Q2 is very much in the rear-view mirror and the outlook into 2027/28 remains very tough

Research evidence excerpt

CEEMEA Petrochemicals Monitor: Q2 Preview: Ability to sell to separate the haves and have-nots. But Q2 is very much in the rear-view mirror and the outlook into 2027/28 remains very tough

he same time, import substitution

accelerated as domestic products gained wider market acceptance. These are

concerning trends for the export-based MENA producers given China’s weak

domestic consumption and mercantilism. We advised avoiding Petrochemical and

Fertilizer stocks in our 2026 outlook (here) and we re-iterate that stance. While the US/

Iran crisis has caused a temporary supply shock, as this eases, the weak underlying

supply/ demand fundamentals which have impacted the industry for the last 4yrs are

set to re-assert themselves with further downward pressure into 2027/28 as new

capacities are added. Moreover, we see risks to oil prices (here) as supply ramps up

and to OPEC cohesion as well as a glut of LNG on the horizon – all of which suggests

pressure on prices. Asset-based valuations continue to look attractive but, in our view,

in the face of falling prices it’s too early to be bold.

• SABIC: It’s difficult to assess what sort of quarter Sabic will report. Sabic

commented on its Q1 call that it expects to be able to sell substantially all the

polymers it produces unhindered, but that liquids remain a problem (cf force

Contents

majeure in announced in April). Given this, we would expect Sabic to re-direct

Key Charts - Supply/Demand 3

some ethylene from chemicals to polymer production where it can, but we

Key Charts - Petrochemical Prices/Spreads/ PMIs 4

would also expect some feedstock supply issues. Sabic has plants both on the Key Charts - Regional pricing 5

East and West (Yansab/ Yanpet) coast but the vast majority of production is Key Charts - Fertilizers/Crops 6