Long Unicredit - Poco a Poco

Research evidence excerpt

Long Unicredit - Poco a Poco

Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales - European Financials AC (44-20) 7134-0355 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nghislaine.sparling@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 28 June 2026

Gigi Sparling

+44 207 134 0355

ghislaine.sparling@jpmorgan.com

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Long Unicredit: Poco a Poco. Whilst we don’t get the results of the tender offer until July 8th, the offer period for Commerzbank

fully closes next week on Friday July 3rd. As of June 19th Unicredit have around 42% (27% share holding + c.12.5% tendered

+3% share settled derivatives) ownership. On top of that they have cash settled TRS for 13%. Orcel has said at a conference on

Tuesday week that all institutional investors bar 5 have tendered their shares. The most likely scenario at this point is that

Unicredit have control of Commerzbank i.e. over a 40% shareholding – the question being whether that could nudge towards 50%

ex the cash settled TRS which would be a positive. If the ECB give Unicredit authorization to go beyond a 30% stake, the next

decision by the regulator is whether Unicredit have control i.e. need to consolidate the RWAs – which we think will be the case.

At that point Unicredit’s CET1 ratio drops to around 12.5%. The higher the UCG shareholding at the end of the offer period the

better that CET1 ratio will look – but also control allows UCG to move forwards on their Commerzbank business plan and what

they want to achieve after almost 2 years of limbo. Whilst the situation is complicated, we do think moving on from this will help