JPM | US Energy: Megawatts, Molecules & Minerals: Tactically Long Commodities in Q3

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | US Energy: Megawatts, Molecules & Minerals: Tactically Long Commodities in Q3

Brendan Henrici - Specialist Sales - US Energy AC North America Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nbrendan.henrici@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 28 June 2026

JPM | US Energy: Megawatts, Molecules & Minerals: Tactically Long

Commodities in Q3

Brendan Henrici, CFA

+1 212 622 2729

brendan.henrici@jpmorgan.com

Hello all! I did not think the volatility in 1Q could have been exceeded anytime this year but boy was I wrong. While Q2 is not

over just quite yet, I thought it would be worth looking at just how dramatic this commodity drawdown has been (both in price

and exposure), how it compares to history and why it may present an opportunity. Turns out there are quite the number of

historical analogs to this drawdown and most of them point to gains in the coming months. As always, the below is the view of

sales and not that of research unless explictly stated.

Sections:

• Commodities' Worst Month in 4yrs

• Pace of Drawdown Looks Like 2022

• Quantifying the Commodity Exodus

• Making the Case for Oil As A Trade

• Copper 232 as a Summer Catalyst

• Aluminum’s Strong 2H Seasonality

Detailed Commentary (Spec View):

Commodity Pain - Echoes of 2022: It has been a tough month for commodities. The combination of the US/Iran MOU,

subsequent quick work on the ship traffic front & a hawkish fed (stronger dollar) have served to upend an asset class that seemed

to have everything going right for it just a few months ago. Taken together, these forces have driven the Bloomberg Commodity

Index toward its worst month (-9%) in 4 years.

One of the worst months for commodities in 10 years…