Global Data Watch

Research evidence excerpt

Global Data Watch

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

26 June 2026

• Oil price forecast falls; upside growth risk rises

• Consumption moderates, while business spending displays strength

• Nudging 2Q26 up for Euro area and down for US

Economic and Policy Research

• Next week: Solid June US jobs and global mfg. PMI; EA HICP moderates

Bruce Kasman

(1-212) 834-5515

While chasin’ the clouds away bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

As underscored in our mid-year outlook, the global expansion is in a cyclical

Joseph Lupton

upturn. The near-term catalyst is a normalization in business sentiment from last (1-212) 834-5735

year’s trade war shock. But financial conditions have remained supportive and joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

profits have surged. A tech spending boom is now broadening as infrastructure JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

building is being complemented by increased outlays to apply new technologies. Nora Szentivanyi

While these AI applications will boost productivity growth, strong demand and (44-20) 7134-7544

normalizing sentiment will boost labor demand, setting the foundation for a period nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

of strong and balanced global growth. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

The latest data supports our view. Our nowcasters continue to show robust capex, Contents

while our global aggregates show a pickup in non-tech industrial output and Germany: A chance to shake off some negativity 13

employment. While momentum in these areas has surpassed expectations, it has Korea: Fiscal implications of the tech windfall 16

not prompted upward revisions to the path ahead (Figure 1). Indeed, our forecasts Australian housing: Shifting gears 18

have remained broadly stable in recent months, with a downshift in 2H26 GDP