Credit Market Outlook & Strategy: How do you spell relief?

Research evidence excerpt

Credit Market Outlook & Strategy: How do you spell relief?

J P M O R G A N North America Credit Research

26 June 2026

Credit Market Outlook & Strategy

How do you spell relief?

• The prolonged period of extremely low volatility in HG spreads came to an end North America Corporate Credit -

this week, with JULI widening to 89bp, the widest since May 8th and 6bp off Investment Grade Strategy

the recent tights, but still broadly in line with YTD and 1yr averages of 90bp. Nathaniel Rosenbaum, CFA AC

Yields remain in a healthy spot at 5.45% as despite being 22bp off recent highs (1-212) 834-2370

they are still 15bp above the 1yr average. In other words, spreads are wider but nathaniel.rosenbaum@jpmorgan.com

not wide, in-line with our thinking in our recent H2 outlook for a modest Silvi Mantri

widening back towards the middle of the ‘high yield range’ which we view as (1-212) 834-7239

80-105bp. There are two key drivers of recent spread widening, one we view silvi.mantri@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

as temporary and the other more structural.

• The more temporary headwind is the current imbalance between very heavy

supply and lighter demand. Supply has surged to $184bn MTD, a new record

June and the first time June supply has been above May since 2014, which

underscores the notion that the ongoing rolling AI capex funding cycle is

looking to fill what used to be occasional seasonal lulls in issuance patterns that

allowed supply and demand to rebalance.

• The more structural headwind is the sharp flattening in the Treasury curve

driven by rising front-end yields which is leading to steeper spread curves,

particularly in the belly. The 5s10s spread curve is currently at 27bp, up 4.5bp

MoM and the steepest since May 2025. There appears to be a sustained re-