Global Data Watch

Research evidence excerpt

Global Data Watch

o hike. This week’s May PCE inflationrecorded in May, with a June rebound in the future output

report was likely close to their expectations, but the detailindex sending an additional positive signal. In the US, avail-

showed uncomfortably firm service price pressures.able June regional Fed surveys show business sentiment

maintaining constructive attitudes on hiring and spending • Fading energy shock reveals hawkish ECB bias. Lower

(Figure 3). We forecast a 125k rise in payrolls—an outcome energy prices will be welcomed by the ECB, but better

that would solidify the message that a recoupling in employ- news on growth and sticky core inflation keep a hike

ment to overall growth has been established. firmly on the table for September. We raised our sights on

2Q26 GDP growth to a still-soft 0.5%ar this week on

Figure 3: US employment, actual and intentions signs that consumer spending will eke out a modest posi-

DI, sa Private %3m/3m, saar tive gain. The rise in the June flash PMI is a step towards

employment 40 6 lifting growth above trend. Next week’s flash June HICP Composite employment (incl. Jun fcst)

intentions report should show moderation in both headline and core

30 4 inflation, with core momentum remaining uncomfortably

high. The message from ECB speakers was that these

20 2 developments warrant maintaining a tightening bias.

10 0 • Data and politics boost BoE patience. We pushed back

our Bank of England hike to November because of falling

0 -2 oil prices and soft labor market readings. Following the

06 11 16 21 26 resignation of the UK prime minister this week, attention Source: BLS, FRB, J.P. Morgan

now turns to fiscal policy under Andy Burnham, who will

take over next month. Burnham has sent mixed signals on