Mexico

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico

Gabriel Lozano (52-55) 5540-9558 Latin America Economic Research J P M O R G A Ngabriel.lozano@jpmorgan.com

Banco J.P.Morgan, S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, J.P.Morgan Grupo Financiero 26 June 2026

Santiago Homberg Saury (52-55) 5540-9499

santiago.hombergsaury@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P. Morgan Grupo Financiero

Mexico emphasis on the Fed, and the marginal adjustments to the

inflation path. Forward guidance was reaffirmed, and in our

• Banxico keeps rates at 6.5% and confirms the start of view is intended to reflect an extended pause: “Looking for-

an ‘on hold’ stance ward, the governing board considers that it will be appropri-

ate to maintain the reference rate at its current level”. We con-

• The Bank enhanced its policy toolkit to improve tinue to expect rates on hold for the foreseeable future.

liquidity and policy-transmission

• CPI falls to 3.55%oya in 1H June, year-end is now Enhancing liquidity management

eyed at 4.1%

Additionally, last week, Banxico introduced a key enhance-

• April’s IGAE rose 1.2%samr, moving us to revise our ment to its monetary policy framework by enabling secondary

2026 GDP forecast to 1.2%y/y

market purchases of Monetary Regulation Bonds (BREMS)

It was a busy week in terms of data, but it was undoubtedly a and government securities via auction-based operations. The

positive one. Banxico delivered no surprises and held rates at measure should be interpreted as a liquidity management

6.5% in a neutral statement at its first meeting since it sig- operation only, in which all operations will be fully sterilized.

naled the end of the easing cycle in May. The decision came

after welcome news on inflation and growth earlier in the Rather than pursuing a balance sheet expansion — operations

week.