J.P. Morgan Market Watch

Research evidence excerpt

J.P. Morgan Market Watch

Dubravko Lakos-Bujas (1-212) 622-3601 Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou (44-20) 7134-7815 Global Markets Strategy J P M O R G A Ndubravko.lakos-bujas@jpmorgan.com nikolaos.panigirtzoglou@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 26 June 2026

Fabio Bassi (44-20) 7134-1989 Mika Inkinen (44-20) 7742 6565

fabio.bassi@jpmorgan.com mika.j.inkinen@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Market Watch growth and coverage rebound. Our sample covers 702 bor-

rowers (440 private), with rating-agency tone modestly better

Bonds (upgrade/downgrade ratios improving). Revenues and EBIT-

DA rose +7.7% and +7.0% YoY, led by BBs while CCC

In the US, we do not expect Chair Warsh’s Sintra panel to EBITDA fell (-4.9%), with wide sector dispersion (Telecom

reveal new policy insights given his June FOMC remarks strongest growth but also highest leverage). LTM interest

and limited new data, while reduced holiday liquidity could expense is roughly flat (+1.2% YoY), helping interest cover-

trigger volatility after next week’s labor market report. With age climb for a sixth quarter to 3.15x; publics screen much

10y yields trading rich the risks are skewed higher over the healthier than privates (4.28x vs 2.28x) (1Q26 Leveraged

medium term, but we remain patient on outright shorts given Loan Credit Fundamentals, Jun 22nd).

near term rebalancing dynamics. Instead, we keep 10s/30s

flatteners as a bearish proxy with attractive RV. European credit looks set for carry-driven returns in H2;

we also update our top trades: OW Industrials vs Con-

In the Euro area, the rally has been largely driven by pricing sumer, OW Single B vs BB, OW Corporate Hybrids vs

out of ECB tightening expectations, but recent ECB rhetoric Tier 2. If energy disruptions continue to ease, inflation should