US Fixed Income Overview: Red, White, and Overview

Research evidence excerpt

US Fixed Income Overview: Red, White, and Overview

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

26 June 2026

US Fixed Income Overview

Red, White, and Overview

• Econ: We trim our 2Q GDP forecast from 3.0% to 2.25%. We expect a 125k Fixed Income Strategy

AC rise in payrolls and an unchanged unemployment rate at 4.3% in June Jay Barry

• Treasuries: The risks for Treasury yields seem skewed higher over the (1-212)john.f.barry@jpmorgan.com834-4951

medium term. However, we are conscious that near-term rebalancing

dynamics could leave further room for yields to decline over the coming week, Molly Herckis

(1-212) 622-0899

and we remain patient in entering outright duration shorts. Instead, we molly.herckis@jpmchase.com

recommend maintaining 10s/30s flatteners as a low-beta way to position for

Liam L Wash

higher yields with a relative value overlay. We expect breakevens to continue (1-212) 834-5230

to trade cheap relative to fair value. We now see a more moderate rise in liam.wash@jpmchase.com

breakevens through the end of the year, with 5-,10- and 30-year breakevens J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

reaching 240bp, 230bp and 225bp respectively

• Interest Rate Derivatives: The hawkish repricing of Fed expectations since

the start of the Middle East conflict has resulted in a repricing of skew, but with

the implied distributions already pricing in more hikes than what our

economists forecast, payer skew could be capped at current levels, while

receiver skew could richen; sell 1Yx1Y A+50 payer swaptions versus buying

1Yx1Y A-50 receiver swaptions. We remain neutral on swap spreads for now.

Term funding premium appears to be only slightly elevated, therefore we

remain neutral on swap spread curve as well

• Short Duration: Any meaningful reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet would