EM Corporate Weekly Monitor: Slipping oil prices, rising World Cup fever

Research evidence excerpt

EM Corporate Weekly Monitor: Slipping oil prices, rising World Cup fever

J P M O R G A N Global Credit Research

26 June 2026

EM Corporate Weekly Monitor

Slipping oil prices, rising World Cup fever

• Oil prices are down about 10% this week, with Brent falling to the low Emerging Markets Corporate

$70s/bbl, which brings it back to the pre-conflict level. The shipping flows Strategy

through the Strait of Hormuz seem to be normalizing, even as headlines around Yang-Myung Hong AC

an attack on a container ship underlined the uneasy situation. Talks between (1-212) 834-4274

US-Iran continue and may drag on for a while, but market expectations look ym.hong@jpmorgan.com

to be pricing out the risk of a meaningful re-escalation in tensions. This is likely J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

to keep overall credit spreads around the currently compressed levels, but we Alisa Meyers

took profit on our OWs in oil & gas related segments (link) given the the strong (1-212) 834-9151

alisa.meyers@jpmorgan.com

performance of the sector and lower oil price backdrop with our commodity J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

strategists lowering their forecasts (link). Dhawal U Mehta

• Credit markets are facing modestly wider spreads so far this week, but this (91-22) 6157 3779

is driven by the decline in UST yields, which keeps returns around flattish. dhawal.mehta@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

CEMBI BD spread widened +6bp to 167bp WTD with +0.06% return, which

is better than EMBIG Div. (+6bp to 196bp, -0.07%) and GBI-EM GD (-

0.31%).

2026 key spread/return forecasts

• In the meantime, market participants are having their attention diverted STW (end-2026) (bp) Total return

by the World Cup, which is now wrapping up the group stage and heading CEMBI Broad Div. 180 3.8%