Poland Consumer: Polish Retail Sector – Weak Food Sales Data in May

Research evidence excerpt

Poland Consumer: Polish Retail Sector – Weak Food Sales Data in May

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26 Jun 2026 15:12:55 ET │ 20 pages

Poland Consumer

Polish Retail Sector – Weak Food Sales Data in May

CITI'S TAKE

Rafal Wiatr, CFA AC

Polish May retail sales came below expectations with food retail sales +48-22-690-3757

coming negative, impacted by very low food inflation. Nominal wage growth rafal.wiatr@citi.com

accelerated to 5.8% yoy (below consensus). E-commerce-related Base

index came strong. In June, the best performing stock in our retail universe,

was Modivo +21% mtd. (supported by solid 1Q26 prel. adj. EBITDA) while

LPP was the weakest -18% (following lowering store expansion and

revenues outlook). Our preferred names remain LPP, Pepco, Allegro and JMT

all rated Buy.

Retail sales below expectation — May retail sales were weak, coming at +4.4% yoy,

below PAP consensus of +5.3%. Sales in constant prices were up by 3% vs market

expectations of +3.6%. Food sales in nominal terms came at -1.4% yoy (-2.8% in

constant prices, vs -5.8% in April) with food inflation at 0.5% vs. 1.8% in April.

E-commerce — GUS based e-commerce retail sales were +9.9% yoy, while Base

Index in May was +16% yoy vs +7.2% in April.

Wage growth and inflation — Nominal wage growth in May accelerated to 5.8% yoy

below PAP consensus of 6%, with real wage growth of 2.6% yoy vs 2.1% in the prior

month. Headline inflation slightly decreased to 3.1% yoy from 3.2% in April, in line

with PAP consensus.

Consumer confidence improved — The Polish consumer confidence index

strengthened in May, as both the current and leading indices increased (see Figure

15 & 17 for more details).

Stocks performance — The performance of Polish retail stocks in June was mixed

again. Modivo (supported by solid 1Q26 prel. adj.