Mexico: May brings another trade surplus

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico: May brings another trade surplus

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

26 June 2026

Mexico

May brings another trade surplus

• May recorded a surplus of US$2.3bn; year-to-date it now stands at US EM, Economics Research

$5.8bn Gabriel Lozano

• Momentum remains positive for non-auto exports (52-55)gabriel.lozano@jpmorgan.com5540-9558

Banco J.P.Morgan, S.A., Institución de Banca• Imports supported by intermediate and partly due to capital imports

relief Múltiple, J.P.Morgan Grupo Financiero

Santiago Homberg Saury

• With trade regaining its mojo, risks to growth skewed higher (52-55) 5540-9499

santiago.hombergsaury@jpmchase.com

May’s trade numbers delivered another surplus, with exports outpacing imports by J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

US$2.3bn, leaving the year-to-date surplus at US$5.8bn. The data follows strong Morgan Grupo Financiero

April export numbers, and while May’s figures show a slight cool-off, with exports

down 0.5%samr, the underlying data is still strong. Imports, by contrast, rose

3.0%samr, on the back of intermediate and capital imports.

Overall, after a widening trade deficit in 1Q26, external demand has regained its

pace, adding upside risks to both 2Q26 and our full-year 1.0%y/y GDP forecast.

Trade balance

US$bn, 3m rolling sum

-2

-6

-10

Jan 23 Jun 23 Nov 23 Apr 24 Sep 24 Feb 25 Jul 25 Dec 25 May 26

Source: J.P. Morgan with data from INEGI

Delving into exports, even with today’s samr decline, the details were encouraging

—especially as the pullback was modest after five consecutive monthly increases

and a 17.0% surge between January and May. In addition, the decline was

concentrated in auto manufacturing exports, which fell 4.9%samr — even if they

remain above their start-of-year level.