European Beverages: US NABCA: Spirits further deteriorate; Diageo and Pernod continue to lose share

Research evidence excerpt

European Beverages: US NABCA: Spirits further deteriorate; Diageo and Pernod continue to lose share

(note here). We broadly do not see Spirits KPIs/valuation as Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales -

European Consumer

attractive vs the broader European Staples space and therefore continue to prefer

(44-20) 3493-3709

names with stronger pricing, earnings and FCF outlooks (Beer). See more in our olivia.b.petronilho@jpmorgan.com

note Herd Spirit.

• Diageo (N) volumes were -2.9% y/y (vs April -7.4%) with volume share loss

of 51bps y/y (vs April -117bps), now the 16th consecutive month of volume

share losses. By category, Diageo saw volume improvements in Tequila at -

6.8%, Rum at -2.2%, Scotch at -6.8%, and Vodka positive at +2.6%.

Meanwhile, Canadian Whisky decelerated at -8.7%, Gin at -6.2%, and Irish

Whiskey remained in strong DD decline. We recognize that Diageo is taking

a more decisive and action-orientated approach, and praise the focus on

widening the price ladder, ambitions with Guinness and RTD, and aiming to

drive a portfolio/category strategy. FY27 is shaping up as a year of investments

with also likely pressure on FCF and a degree of risk remains until we know

more about the depth and breadth of price cuts, elasticity benefits and potential

offset from cost savings, all of which we hope to understand more about post-

CMD on August 6th.

• Campari (N) volumes were -1.5% y/y (vs April -0.3%), with volume share

flat. By category, Cordials were -0.7%, Tequila +11.2% and US Whiskey -

7.9%. While Campari had a strong finish to FY25, Q126 was weak and missed

expectations due to US inventory optimization, and a caveat remains on H226,

when EBIT growth should accelerate at a time Campari might be facing

heightened competition in the US as DGE implements potential price