JPM | Marissa’s Macro Musings - A fragile capex driven growth regime...

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | Marissa’s Macro Musings - A fragile capex driven growth regime...

Specialist Sales

US Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

26 June 2026

Simultaneously, they are looking to see AI adoption working, not just spending and output. Yesterday’s price action highlighted

this dynamic. Micron’s extraordinary print (revenue of $41.5 billion, margins of 85%, $22 billion in customer prepayments!)

confirmed AI demand is real and accelerating. What it did not confirm is that AI is delivering the productivity gains that would

justify the inflationary cost of building it. Apple raising prices on Macs and iPads was a clear sign that AI infrastructure costs are

being passed through to consumers… and the market is becoming increasingly concerned.

In this vein, Micron’s results were less consequential for the memory story than they were for the broader market narrative:

growth at the expense of hyperscalers. Moreover, as evidenced by the strong macro data, hyperscalers are not just funding

memory, but the entire AI value chain. Outside of memory-centric names, the outperformers yesterday were industrials and power

infrastructure names.

Where the regime gets thin..

The current market is running on decent growth (powering earnings) and Fed credibility (stabilizing interest rates). Both are intact

today, but the growth surprise cycle has been running hot for an extended period, which puts it at risk of mean reversion. When

CESIUSD has been elevated for this long the forward bar for beats gets higher (60-80 has has historically seen reversals, the

index was at 60.4 as of this morning).

The KOSPI move overnight is an expression of what happens when a crowded trade meets a regime that is questioning the reward

framework.