Scandinavia: Tight ranges over summer

Research evidence excerpt

Scandinavia: Tight ranges over summer

Khagendra Gupta AC (44-20) 7134-0486 Marcus Mayfield (44-20) 3493-8050 Global Markets Strategy J P M O R G A Nkhagendra.x.gupta@jpmorgan.com marcus.mayfield@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc J.P. Morgan Securities plc 26 June 2026

Frida Infante (33 1) 8703 2581

frida.infante@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Scandinavia

Tight ranges over summer

• Sweden: Our baseline expectation remains for one more hike by the end of 2026.

The Stibor curve is pricing around 18bp and 30bp of hikes by Dec26 and Jun27,

which we find to be broadly fair. We are neutral duration at the front-end

• Cross market we remain neutral as we see limited scope and catalysts for a signifi-

cant under or outperformance of Stibor vs Euribor

• As bearish proxy, we find Dec26/Dec27 SEK FRA curve steepeners are a good low-

beta bearish proxy as the directionality has shifted towards the longer-end of this

curve

• For investors looking to position through bullish proxies, we find swap curve steep-

eners further out are attractive and these also offer modest positive carry

• We hold 5Yx5Y Stibor-Euribor wideners

• Norway: Our baseline expectation is for one more 25bp hike from the Norges Bank

in September, but we do not rule out the risk of an earlier August delivery if core

inflation pressures remain sticky

• With risks arguably skewed to a longer pause versus market pricing from the

Norges Bank after the next hike, and only one 25bp cut by 1Q28, we hold our Dec26/

Dec27 NOK 3M FRA curve steepeners

• Take profit in Dec26 (NOK-EUR) 3M FRA spread widener; we see limited scope

for further near-term Euribor outperformance in a rally, or Nibor underperfor-

mance in a sell-off

• Enter Reds/Greens Nibor swap curve flattener on attractive carry considerations;