We cut Brent fcasts $18/$12/bbl for H226 & FY27. Favour Shell and Galp: EU Energy Sector Specialist Commentary Oil - O&G - Utilities - Infrastructure

Research evidence excerpt

We cut Brent fcasts $18/$12/bbl for H226 & FY27. Favour Shell and Galp: EU Energy Sector Specialist Commentary Oil - O&G - Utilities - Infrastructure

Ian Mitchell - Specialist Sales - European Energy AC (44-20) 7134-1356 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 26 June 2026

We cut Brent fcasts $18/$12/bbl for H226 & FY27. Favour Shell and Galp

Ian Mitchell

+44 207 134 1356

ian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com

Earlier this week JPM Global Head of Commodities Research Natasha Kaneva cut her oil price forecasts for H226 and

FY27 by $18/bbl and $12/bbl respectively. The key driver of the cut was data showing a smaller draw in OECD inventories

than expected

As per recent emails, Natasha’s previous forecasts were sitting materially above the forward curve out to H227, a curve

which has done little but fall further in the last few weeks. Her new H226 avg forecasts of c$83/bbl are still above the curve

(by less), but we are now in line from Q127 and still materially below by H227, with JPMe end-27 at a bearish $55/bbl.

Given an increasingly difficult outlook for 2027 we would favour EU Oil stocks with strong balance sheets / clear de-

gearing and growth opportunities, TTE remains a solid hold but Shell and Galp offer best value

Cutting oil forecasts as new data on OECD inventories paints a clearer picture of supply/demand over the ME conflict

- At last, a bit of respite this week from the constant back and forth between the US and Iran on the exact state of peace

negotiations. It’s too early to declare this over, but both sides appear incentivised to keep things on track until at least 4th of July,

when the US will celebrate America 250 and the State Funeral of previous Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will

begin