Citi Research Macro Think Tank

Research evidence excerpt

Citi Research Macro Think Tank

Global Economics

Turmoil in the Middle East—Implications for Supply Chains

By Nathan Sheets, Cole Langlois

Brent Oil Price Supply Chain Developments in Key Sectors

$/bbl Sector Exposure Supply Chain Pressures Outlook

130 25% of global ethylene and 20% of Recovery slow and uneven due to infrastructure

global polyethylene supply offline damage and logistics backlogs. Onset of Iran Conflict Petrochemicals High 120

Prices remain elevated; risk of spillover into

110 Fertilizers High 15% of global fertilizer production offline agriculture, dampening output and raising prices.

Pressures likely to linger, restart timelines for idled Moderately

producers in the Middle East sustained 100 Aluminum Supply disruptions as several large

High capacity extending into 2027.

damage to their infrastructure

Fuel shock; similar sized shocks have Vulnerable to reemergence of higher fuel prices;

Airlines Moderate

80 led to past airline recessions distinct winners and losers among carriers.

Low

accounting for 30% of global supply this should be a manageable shock. 70 HeliumSemiconductors& Disruptions to Qatari helium exports, Consensus among major chip producers is that

60 NAM Higher fuel prices across freight 2026 full-year outlooks broadly unchanged; costs

Feb-2026 Mar-2026 Apr-2026 May-2026 Jun-2026 Transportation networks passed through to customers.

Source: Citi Research, Bloomberg Source: Citi Research

Citi Global Supply Chain Pressure Index • The interim agreement between the US and Iran has allowed oil prices to

Pre-Pandemic Average = 0 decline and eased some key headwinds constraining the global economy.

4 Even so, the durability of the agreement remains to be seen, and the conflict

has damaged infrastructure across the Middle East.