The Point for North America

Research evidence excerpt

The Point for North America

thoughts. Across airlines, we see upside vs. consensus in 2Q and even more upside

in 3Q before our estimates normalize with respect to consensus on re-accelerating

ASM growth in 4Q26. Accordingly, we expect nearly every airline to beat and offer

3Q guidance which exceeds current consensus estimates. However, sell-side

consensus seems stale, in our view, and the recent rally in stocks has already

priced in much of the upside related to this view. As such, we believe the stocks

that will outperform are those that can sustain recently re-rated multiples vs.

peers – namely the supermajors (DAL/UAL/AAL). In addition, we update our ALGT

model for the SNCY merger and see significant, stock-specific upside to 2027

EPS. As such, we upgrade ALGT to Buy/High Risk.

John Godyn | Max Lesnik

ETR % to Airline Price Targets

50%

41.8%

40%

30% 27.0% 25.2%

20% 15.1%

11.7% 11.5%

10% 6.8% 5.6%

0%

-10%

-11.8%

-20%

ALGT UAL AAL DAL ULCC JBLU SKYW LUV ALK

US Airlines - 2Q26 Quarterly Preview: Group Higher Before Lower; Upgrading

ALGT to Buy/High Risk

We're updating EPS estimates, price targets and views as part of our process of

previewing EPS season. In addition, we update our ALGT model for the SNCY

merger and see significant, stock-specific upside to 2027 EPS. As such, we

upgrade ALGT to Buy/High Risk.

North America Insurance - Brokers and Insurance - Property & Casualty - 2Q

EPS Doesn’t Matter, What Does Is Where Estimates Go from Here

2Q is likely to be a difficult growth quarter for the industry (bad news) due to

property pricing pressure, but it could also end up being the hardest growth comp

of the year (potential good news). Importantly, with estimates now reflecting

normalized levels of growth, estimate risk from changes to top-line should be less