Türkiye

Research evidence excerpt

Türkiye

hough the impact is cushioned by the retreat in Brent crude oil prices to a three-month low. The

the fuel tax buffer. Second, lower oil and fertiliser prices, downside, however, is partially offset by higher electricity

together with favourable weather conditions, should moderate market prices and shifts in natural gas consumption tiers,

food prices in 2H26. Third, we assume no further electricity despite the absence of administered price hikes.

and natural gas price hikes, while the automatic fuel and

tobacco tax adjustments in July are likely to come in below Excluding food and energy, core inflation is expected to stay

the levels implied by 1H26 PPI inflation. firm. Core goods inflation is forecast at 1.5% m/m, or 1.9%

sa, holding up even as clothing rises only slightly after the

With near-term inflation risks receding and, more importantly, sharp increases of the past two months. On the services side,

the recent accumulation of FX reserves alongside contained inflation is forecast at 1.9% m/m, lifted by higher rents as we

retail dollarisation, we anticipate the CBRT to resume one- enter the summer contract renewal season, while seasonally-

week repo auctions on 23 July, lowering the effective funding adjusted momentum eases to 2.4% sa but remains elevated.

rate from 40% to 37%. We now expect the CBRT to cut the

one-week repo rate by 100bp at each of the September 10 and Looking further out, we have lowered our year-end inflation

October 22 meetings to 35% by end-26 (previously 37%), due forecast to 29%, from 30% previously (Figure 1). This revi-

to lower energy prices and the CBRT’s dovish forward guid- sion reflects three factors. First, the decline in Brent crude

ance. prices is expected to translate into lower motor fuel prices;