Sweden NIER: Sentiment upbeat, pricing plans cool

Research evidence excerpt

Sweden NIER: Sentiment upbeat, pricing plans cool

Fabio Tomasoni Europe Economic Research J P M O R G A N 26 June 2026

fabio.tomasoni@jpmorgan.com

the recent PMI upturn. Services sentiment also improved, while construction remains the

most downbeat sector, falling further in June and pointing to below-normal growth.

Sweden NIER survey Sweden NIER survey: Retail trade

Di, sa % sa %oya

130 Construction Manufacturing Trade 120 Retail trade confidence, NIER 10

% 110 6

4 110 12 2 100

8 0

-2

90 4 90 -4

Services -6

Consumer 0 80 Retail sales, -8

70 -4 70 ex. fuel -10-12

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Source: J.P. Morgan, NIER -8 Source:14J.P. 15Morgan,16NIER,17SCB18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

On the nominal side, total industry pricing plans cooled in June after a recent surge – a

welcome signal for the Riksbank, which sees pricing plans as a key gauge of inflation

pressures ahead. Yet a striking gap remains between subdued core inflation and still-elevated

pricing expectations (see chart below). Because the NIER is a diffusion index, it can miss

concentrated price moves, such as the VAT-cut-driven decline in food inflation. Taken at face

value, the survey still flashes building price pressures and firms’ robust intentions to raise

prices, which, on historical relationships, could fuel inflation momentum over the next 4-5

months and flag upside risk to the forecast. Even so, price pressures have likely peaked and

should drift lower as commodity prices keep retreating. Meanwhile, households’ inflation

expectations ticked down, albeit they remain above actual inflation.

Sweden: Core inflation and NIER industry price expectations Swedish ETI consumer survey: households' inflation view

%3m/3m, saar Index

%oya

10 Total industry selling price exp 50 22 Perceived inflation now