JPM High-Yield and Leveraged Loan Morning Intelligence

Research evidence excerpt

JPM High-Yield and Leveraged Loan Morning Intelligence

TFS 485,733 360 171 3,503 (2,280) 1,945 6,889 (921) 25,698 7,379 43,169

Source: J.P. Morgan; LSEG Lipper/Refinitiv

--High Level Overview: Our global economists published their 2026 Mid-Year outlook here. The first half

of 2026 delivered a material energy price shock, but they maintain their forecast for a cyclical upturn—led

by a continued tech boom, and a rebound in hiring and non-tech investment—that sustains global growth at

an above-potential pace. The risk of a disruptive energy price shock short-circuiting this lift has been

reduced by the agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz. However, global GDP growth is still expected to

downshift into midyear as the recent CPI spike softens consumption gains. While headline inflation should

moderate next quarter, the pass-through of this shock to higher core inflation will persist. The energy price

shock has thus raised their 2026 projections for headline (1%pt to 3.5%) and core inflation (0.2%pt

to 2.9%) and lowered their global GDP growth projections by 0.2%pt to 2.5%. Several factors should

temper this downshift and set the stage for a 2H26 reacceleration. Industrial activity will be supported by a

positive turn in the inventory cycle. Fiscal measures are cushioning the household purchasing power

squeeze, while the opening of the Strait should boost sentiment. Meanwhile, they see the recent pickup in

US job growth as linked to fading business caution and anticipate sustained gains of 100k per month or

faster. As well, they expect European sentiment readings to rebound smartly, placing Euro area

growth on track to accelerate to an above-trend pace later this year. And while likely to boost