G10 FX

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A N

laoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com G10 FX Daily Report - 26th June

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 2026

26 June 2026

JPY Plenty of conversations on the long term spending plan unveiled by Takaichi and Co yesterday

with the most obvious question on how this will be financed, JGB market trading OK for now.

From my side I think the financing could become very interesting if the FEFSA becomes

involved, clearly huge issuance would go the other way and continue to build pressure on the

currency. Tokyo CPI bit hotter than expected overnight but the focus remains on the MoF

reaction function not the BoJ as nerves remain frayed with 162 in proximity. Still like running

modest shorts in USDJPY here content to trade the mini wobbles while remaining on red alert

for bold action.

CHF The greenback backed off its highs quite aggressively yesterday following the PCE print, which

—despite being in line—wasn’t as hot as the market had expected, especially after last week’s

more hawkish Fed. This saw USDCAD move all the way down to 1.4180, but my

view remains unchanged: I still think CAD will be a medium-term underperformer,

so I’m staying short the currency here, with focus now turning to next week’s GDP print. We

saw similar price action in USDCHF, with the pair selling off aggressively after the print,

although flows were subdued. All eyes will be on next week’s US payrolls report, which shouldCAD

shed some light on the Fed’s future path. Until then, we continue to run shorts in both CAD and

CHF.

AUD Data this morning saw a rise in PPI, Household Spending and the NIER Survey in Sweden,

while Retail Sales fell in Norway. Taken at face value, I am glad that I cut the last of my

NOKSEK longs on Wednesday.