The Point for Latin America

Research evidence excerpt

The Point for Latin America

Point |

Friday, 26 June 2026

Top Call | Company | Industry | Strategy & Economics | Global | Key Rating and Target Price Changes

Top Call

Braskem (BRKM5.SA) - Downgrade to Sell; Liquidity Crunch and the Road to

Restructuring

We are downgrading Braskem to Sell/High Risk (from Neutral/High Risk),

prompted by a deteriorating outlook for petrochemical spreads and mounting

company-specific risks. Our prior Neutral thesis, which anticipated a cyclical

recovery and a clear ownership resolution, is no longer tenable as near-term

fundamentals weaken, creating a negative shift in the risk/reward balance. The

financial outlook is challenging, with spread pressure and a working capital drag

likely leading to negative FCF, thus straining the balance sheet. Furthermore, the

material tail risk from the Alagoas Geological Event cannot be overlooked; judicial

restructuring becomes a realistic outcome. Ambiguity over Petrobras's strategic

intentions and a potential need for a capital injection further cloud the outlook for

equity holders. Given this confluence of negative factors, we believe the stock's

current valuation fails to compensate for its heightened risk profile. We trimmed

our target price to R$4.50/sh (from R$11.50/sh), with Braskem Idesa contributing

with a -R$1.00/sh.

Gabriel Barra | Andrés Cardona

Company

Ambev (ABEV3.SA) - Brazil Beer IPCA-15 June-26: Beer Affordability Maintained

June IPCA-15 data showed stable trends versus the prior month (link), maintaining

a negative beer pricing gap relative to headline inflation and reinforcing the

industry's increasingly volume-oriented strategy. Beer inflation came in at

+4.1%YoY in June, implying a -69bps gap versus headline inflation (stable vs May-