GEMS FIRST TO MARKET

Research evidence excerpt

GEMS FIRST TO MARKET

Global Equity Research

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GEMS First To Market 26 June 2026

Top Stories

China Equity Strategy (Erin Zhang, CFA), China

Three-Channel Playbook: How a Hormuz Reopening Could Boost China Stocks

Many investors are looking for a playbook on a potential Strait of Hormuz reopening. In our view, this outcome would be a

constructive tailwind for selected China equity themes in 2H26. As Brent crude retreats toward the US$70-80 per barrel range

and the extreme tail risk of an oil-price spike fades, macro resilience should strengthen. The impact would likely cascade

through three distinct investment channels: (1) the macro and fundamental effects of lower oil prices, (2) incremental demand

from Middle East reconstruction, and (3) a recovery in global demand that benefits Chinese exporters (see Figure 18 and

Figure 19 for the list of top exporters). At the sector level, a durable reopening/normalization around Hormuz is seen as

supportive for tanker equities. Lower fuel/feedstock costs should lift margins for airlines, logistics, chemicals and soft

beverages, though equity upside may be tempered by still-soft discretionary demand and incomplete volume/price

normalization. A pickup in Middle East reconstruction across traditional infrastructure and renewables could support

engineering, machinery, steel construction and related exporters. With consumer electronics likely to benefit from external

demand upside, we raise IT from N to OW.