European Insights

Research evidence excerpt

European Insights

Global Markets Research

European Insights 25 June 2026

Economics - EMEA/Euro Area/Europe

Research Analysts

How has inflation responded to oil? European Economics

George Buckley - NIplc

• We take a look at the latest three months of official consumer price data in the euro george.buckley@nomura.com

area and the UK to get a sense of how the oil shock (which is dissipating quickly) +44 (0) 20 7102 1800

might have influenced non-energy prices thus far. Andrzej Szczepaniak - NIplc

andrzej.szczepaniak@nomura.com

• While food and core goods prices thus far seem to have been insulated from higher +44 (0) 20 7102 3167

energy costs, service prices have been stickier in the euro area. In the UK, stripping Josie Anderson - NIplc

out volatile and administered prices, service price momentum has been on a more josie.anderson@nomura.com

encouraging trajectory. +44 (0) 20 7102 4284

Global Economics

• The outlook for ECB and BoE policy will depend heavily not only on whether the fall in David Seif - NSI

oil prices can be sustained (which in turn will depend on the situation in the Middle david.seif@nomura.com

East and whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open), but also on how past rises in +1 212 667 9180

energy prices feed through into underlying inflation.

Energy, indirect and second-round effects

Since the Iran war began there have been three monthly inflation prints for Europe – for

the months of March, April and May. The euro area (and Big 4) June data are due next

week. A crucial aspect to setting monetary policy right now is to understand how much of

the rise in energy prices is being transmitted through the economy as indirect effects – i.e.

how much are non-energy prices rising as producers pass on increased costs? As yet, it is