JPY Intraday Comment

Research evidence excerpt

JPY Intraday Comment

Nomura | JPY Intraday Comment 25 June 2026

which was released yesterday. In this sense, Tamura does not appear to have become

materially more hawkish since the June meeting, though he is still hawkish compared with

current market expectations of pricing in the next 25bp hike by December (i.e. six months

away).

Tamura also said that, if the probability of upside risks of increases in prices materialises,

the BOJ should not hesitate to accelerate the pace of rate hikes, including their frequency

and size. However, at the press conference following today’s speech, he said that he does

not currently believe a larger rate of increase is necessary. This suggests that, at present,

a 50bp rate hike or an acceleration in the pace of tightening is not his baseline option.

Overall, the speech contained little in the way of surprises. The hawkish comments

therefore did not provide a meaningful catalyst for JPY appreciation, and USD/JPY

continued to trade in the upper 161 range today.

Weekly MOF international transactions in securities (as of 14–20 June)

Japanese investor flows

• Foreign equities: Japanese investors net bought JPY426.8bn (USD2.6bn) of foreign

equities. This was the first net buying in five weeks. During the week, foreign equities

performed solidly, and pension funds may therefore have been net sellers due to

rebalancing. That said, high-frequency indicators suggest that so-called NISA flows

remained relatively firm, which may have overwhelmed pension fund flows.

• Foreign bonds: Japanese investors net bought JPY199.7bn (USD1.2bn) of foreign

bonds. The scale of net buying was small by historical standards. With overseas yields

rising following the June FOMC, Japanese investors appear not to have moved to

actively net buy foreign bonds.