May machine tool orders (confirmed) and investment perspectives

Research evidence excerpt

May machine tool orders (confirmed) and investment perspectives

ntinue boosting the level of machine

tool orders. That said, for automotive orders, we think it is important to be aware that in

addition to a fallback in demand from China, where the level was particularly high in May,

the contribution from individual projects in North America could decline in the near term. The

results of an order outlook survey were released alongside confirmed order data for May.

The results are from quarterly surveys of companies, and the DI, calculated by subtracting

the percentage of members that, as of the start of June, expected orders to decline q-q in

Jul–Sep 2026, from the percentage expecting orders to increase, was positive at 8.7,

marking the first positive reading in three quarters and rising to a level close to that seen in

Apr–Jun 2022. Changes in the DI tend to lead quarterly orders by around two quarters.

Based on this, even if there is a lull in orders from Jul–Sep through Oct–Dec 2026, we think

order levels could rise again in absolute terms through Jan–Mar 2027.

Investment perspective factoring in both ongoing upcycle and risk of slowdown in

momentum

We expect machine tool order value to remain on an upward trajectory in absolute terms

throughout FY26, particularly in terms of data center- and semiconductor-related orders.

However, in view of the seasonality of Jul–Sep and the prior-year comparison base, we see

a risk of y-y growth in quarterly orders slowing through 27/3 H2. We think it is important to

consider both the strength of the current cycle and the risk of a slowdown in momentum

through H2. Among factory automation (FA) companies, where robust semiconductor-

related demand continues to drive earnings, we recommend Fanuc [6954] (Buy) as we